A recent letter writer in the Tribune may not be aware that whole countries are vaccine hesitant. Countries from New Zealand to Vietnam controlled the spread from the start and may yet see the same end — another circulating or endemic pathogen that emerged from wet markets — but not before immunocompromised residents are protected. Vaccines are nice to have in the medicine kit but slow, expensive and inefficient in the crisis phase.

A number of experts in the field have noted that estimates of population immunity (aka herd immunity from agriculture and veterinary medicine) are now about 34 percent from natural infections and 43 percent from vaccines, adding that we are therefore approaching 60 percent. Evidently, pandemic surveillance data show many people with natural immunity are getting vaccines, which helps explain why the numbers are not strictly additive.

We know many people are infected, generate an immune response and experience mild or ambiguous symptoms. These populations are estimated from figures other than hospital admissions and may be even less reliable. They are likely to be more “strictly additive,” so we could be well above 60 percent.

Population immunity is generally estimated to be “effective” between 60 and 80 percent. It is connected to the R number, which is clearly below zero and trending in the right direction almost across the board in California. The R number is also less speculative compared to the estimate for population immunity: https://ca-covid-r.info/

Case data and the weight of the epidemiological evidence combined with hospitalization rates don’t support turning to examples from other countries with very different experiences and systems. The U.S. let the virus spread initially, effectively guaranteeing tremendous cost to human life from community spread.

It’s pretty clear that mass vaccination taken to extremes would stigmatize immunocompetent adults needlessly at this point.

Randell Stortroen

Pacifica

(0) comments

Welcome to the discussion.

Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.

More Stories

  • Updated
  • 0

Dear editor,  This letter was sent to the City Council. Sorry, but I have to say your opinion is way off base, in my humble opinion. What experience do you, or your ilk, have in regards to law enforcement. Have you ever arrested anyone? I  have. Have you ever applied a “choke hold” ? I […]

  • Updated
  • 0

Dear editor,  This is a letter sent to the Pacifica City Council.  Again, I write to you about putting the RV ban on Terra Nova Blvd. – at once!  It is disgraceful of all of you to ignore all the letters and communications from hundreds of TNB property owners/property tax payers and many mem…

  • Updated
  • 0

Dear editor, This is a letter I sent to the Pacifica City Council. I’m addressing the council members on two very serious issues in our City of Pacifica.  Homeless encampement fire??  Seriously?  How did you allow things to get so out of control? This is compassion?  Have you not seen what S…

  • Updated
  • 0

Dear editor,  I thank Mr. Bray for his wise words and for sharing his concerns.  I left out a few things from my original letter. First, the officer in question pulled up behind several vehicles before he reached mine. In each case, the driver moved on. I guess it had something to do with “o…

  • Updated
  • 0

Dear editor, I find myself once again fact checking your column since more often than not your version of facts bears no relationship to the truth. I guess you take your cues from our Liar in Chief. You commented in the June 17th edition that ASU withdrew a job offer to Sonya Duhé to become […]

  • Updated
  • 0

Dear editor,  It was a miracle. Right in front of our eyes. A Pacifica miracle. One we’ll never forget. Me and my life partner were out on our walk and saw a car approaching in our direction. It slowed and pulled over to the curb. A young lady got out of the passenger side and […]

  • Updated
  • 0

Dear editor,  This was originally written to the Pacifica City Council. I am very pleased that the city is moving forward on replacing and extending the seawall to close the southern gap to protect its residents. However, I’m shocked to learn that the engineering firm that the city has chose…

  • Updated
  • 0

Dear editor,  I read with sorrow and disappointment the letter from the Rev. Piers Lahey indicting the Pacifica police for parking behind him. I am not sure how parking behind him is considered “pulling him over,” but, apparently it was enough to stoke the good reverend’s fertile imagination…

  • Updated
  • 0

Dear Editor, I drove by the Eureka Square Shopping Center recently and noticed a group of about 25 people lined up outside of City Arms. I’m not sure what was happening but folks were there for a reason. Maybe there was a special sale for favorite customers? Maybe there was a new weapon of some […]

Recommended for you